Fanelli’s Fave Five Bets for Monday Night Football: Week 4by Mike Fanelli October 5, 2020 1 comment
Thanks to Covid-19, the 2020 NFL season will be one full of on the fly changes. After Cam Newton tested positive Saturday, the league decided to push back the New England Patriots’ game against the Kansas City Chiefs to Monday night. The only good news out of this situation is we have two games to watch tonight. Maybe the league will realize this is something they should every Monday, starting next season. However, that’s a topic for another day, and this article is about gambling.
While fans and fantasy football players have rooting interests, for gamblers, their only rooting interest is whatever will lead to money in their pockets. However, which bets should they place from tonight’s games? Here are five bets gamblers should consider placing for both games.
Be sure to place your bets with Jazz Sportsbook for the best odds and excellent promotions.
New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs
Travis Kelce Over 5.5 Receptions (-143)
While the Patriots have a tough defense, Kelce is the focal point of the Chiefs’ passing attack. He has 27 targets so far this season and has at least six receptions in every game. Furthermore, Kelce went over 5.5 receptions in 10 of his 16 regular games last season, including seven in a Week 14 matchup with the Patriots. Unless this game turns into a blowout quickly, expect Kelce to have his fourth straight game with over 5.5 receptions.
Rex Burkhead to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+200)
Sony Michel was going to be the bet here but he has been ruled out with a quad injury. Without Newton and Michel, the Patriots don’t have their two top goal line runners, so expect those touches to go to Burkhead instead. Damien Harris may play for the first time this season, but the Patriots will want to ease him in coming off an injury. Last week Burkhead reached the end zone three times despite having just 13 total touches. However, with Brian Hoyer under center, expect Burkhead to have a season-high in touches.
Patrick Mahomes Over 19.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Everyone knows what Mahomes can do with his arm, but what isn’t talked about enough is his legs. Mahomes is averaging 26.7 rushing yards per game this season and has gone over 19.5 rushing yards in each of his last two games. The Patriots have struggled against running quarterbacks in the past. While Mahomes isn’t the runner Lamar Jackson is, he can still burn a defense with his legs. With the Patriots doing everything possible to slow down the Chiefs passing attack, expect Mahomes to break off a few 10 plus yard runs.
James White to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+180)
With Newton and Michel not playing, it’s hard to predict how the Patriots’ offense will look with Hoyer under center. To make matters worse, Hoyer will have no practice reps with the first-team offense before kickoff. However, we know Bill Belichick loves to use his running backs in the passing game, and White is their best receiving back. Expect the Chiefs to send pressure early and often, making Belichick counter with lots of screen passes to his running backs. Hopefully, one ends up with White in the end zone.
Sammy Watkins Over 3.5 Receptions (-155)
So far this season, Watkins has held a firm grasp on the Chiefs’ second wide receiver role behind Tyreek Hill. He has played at least 80 percent of the snaps in two of the three games this season, and in those games, he is averaging seven catches on 8.5 targets per game. In previous matchups against the Chiefs, the Patriots would place Stephone Gilmore on Kelce and double team Hill. Doing this would leave Watkins with a better matchup on the other side. Mahomes has targeted Watkins 16.5 percent of the time this season, so Watkins should have no trouble bringing in four receptions tonight.
Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers
Aaron Jones to Score Two or More Touchdowns (+130)
With Davante Adams and Allen Lazard out, the Packers will need to lean on Jones more than usual tonight. Jones has five touchdowns this season, four of which have come in the two games Adams has missed. Jones is averaging just under 22 touches a game this season and should see at least 25 total tonight given all the injuries the Packers have on offense. While the Falcons have given up just two rushing touchdowns to running backs this season, they gave up two receiving touchdowns to Chris Carson in Week 1. Whether it’s at the goal line or in the receiving game, Jones will likely have his second two or more touchdown game of the season tonight.
Todd Gurley Over 56.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Despite playing on a pass-happy offense in Atlanta, Gurley has still managed to rush for at least 56 yards in every game this season. Furthermore, his rushing yards have increased in every game this season. Last week, Gurley totaled a season-high 86 rushing yards on just 14 attempts against the Chicago Bears. Meanwhile, the Packers have struggled to slow down running backs. They have given up at least 85 rushing yards to running backs in every game this season. Furthermore, the Packers have given up 100 or more rushing yards to running backs in two of their three games. Even with the Falcons chasing points tonight, Gurley should have no problem going over 56.5 rushing yards.
Robert Tonyan to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+200)
Much like the Eagles, the Falcons have been awful at slowing down opposing tight ends. They gave up two touchdowns to Jimmy Graham last week and have given up four to the position so far this season. Meanwhile, Tonyan has become a critical part of the passing attack for the Packers. Over the last two weeks, Tonyan has been targeted eight times and scored twice. Furthermore, Lazard will miss the game due to a core muscle injury, opening up more red zone work for Tonyan. At 2-1 odds, Tonyan is the best value play to score in the game.
Calvin Ridley to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+120)
The Packers have given up five touchdowns to wide receivers so far this season despite facing only one Pro Bowl caliber wide receiver. Both Kenny Golladay and Michael Thomas missed their games against the Packers. Meanwhile, Ridley scored two touchdowns in each of his first two games this season. However, he didn’t score a touchdown last week as the Bears focused on taking him out of the game flow because Julio Jones didn’t play. With Julio expected to play tonight and the Packers have only one elite cornerback, expect Matt Ryan to target Ridley plenty, resulting in at least one touchdown.
Aaron Rodgers Over 289.5 Passing Yards (-112)
While Rodgers has thrown for over 289.5 passing yards once this season, it came in Week 1 against the Vikings’ young secondary. The good news is, Rodgers faces another young secondary tonight. Even without Adams, Rodgers threw for 283 yards against a good New Orleans Saints defense last week. Meanwhile, the Falcons have given up the second-most passing yards so far this season, giving up an average of 356 per game. Furthermore, they have allowed quarterbacks to throw for over 315 yards in every game this season. This game should be a shootout, so both quarterbacks will easily go over 300 passing yards.
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