NFL DFS: Cash Game Plays for Week 4by Joe Ricotta October 4, 2020 0 comments
The games haven’t yet begun, and already Week 4 is the most interesting week of the year to this point. The Covid-19 bug struck the Tennessee Titans, and their matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers has been postponed. Cam Newton tested positive for Covid-19, so the New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs game has been pushed back as well. Be on high alert and monitor everything before the 1 PM EST games kickoff. At this rate, there could be some other games in jeopardy at the last minute. All that we can control is what we can control. With that said, let’s get into some Week 4 Cash Game targets.
The goal of the cash game article is to outline some of the safer plays while also providing options that will help you create the most optimal builds. The whole point of it all is to make some money. Sometimes we won’t, but putting ourselves in the best position to do so is the essential part. That can sometimes get overshadowed by the results on a week to week basis.
All people want to know is how many points a guy scored, and not necessarily the route they got there. DFS is not only a science but a math equation. Let’s dive in, put the pieces together, and try to solve it. Here are the NFL DFS Cash Game Plays for Week 4.
Disclaimer: As always, there will be a lock emoji next to a few of my favorite plays. All of the guys mentioned are viable for cash games, but the ones with a lock emoji will be fixtures in my main lineup.
Deshaun Watson ($6,600 DK, $7,800 FD)
Watson and the Houston Texans haven’t had the best start to the year. They’ve gotten off to an 0-3 start and find themselves in last place in the AFC South. I’ve even heard people calling him a glorified bust. He’s gone up against three stingy defenses to start the year, two of which rank in the top six in DVOA against the pass. Also, losing DeAndre Hopkins was a big blow.
Whenever a quarterback loses its top target, there’s an adjustment period. However, the Texans still have some weapons, and this is a get-right spot against an atrocious Minnesota Vikings defense. The Vikings come in tied for the most opponent passing yards per attempt allowed with 8.3, and they’ve given up the third-most passing yards per game at 292.3. If you have the salary to spend and don’t want to go all the way up to Russell Wilson, Watson is a good option.
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,400 DK, $7,100 FD)
What? How is this a safe option? It’s not that it’s entirely safe; we know that Fitzpatrick tends to throw interceptions. With that said, he also isn’t afraid to chuck it around the yard, either. The Seattle Seahawks are the better team, Wilson is playing at an elite level, and they should beat the Dolphins, exactly why Fitzpatrick could be Fitzmagic. When he’s playing from behind or forced to throw it a lot to keep pace, he can rack up the yardage and get some garbage time points. Hell, he might even be able to make the game look somewhat close on paper. We need to save salary somewhere, why not do it here? We’ll take the good with the bad and hope for more magic from Fitz.
Alvin Kamara ($8,000 DK, $8,800 FD) 🔒
Kamara is the top option on DraftKings, and he could be the best target on FanDuel as well. In the two games the New Orleans Saints have played without Michael Thomas, Kamara has received 23 targets. That’s astronomical for a running back. If he were to get that many targets over a 16 game span, he would end up with 184 for the season. To give context, Christian McCaffrey received 142 targets last year on his way to a 116 catch season.
Additionally, in comparison, the number one wide receiver Hopkins is on pace for 197 targets. Not only is Kamara getting targeted, but only one of those attempts resulted in an incompletion over the last two games, and Drew Brees doesn’t seem willing (or maybe capable) to throw the ball downfield to his outside receivers. Then, you add in the rushing work, the juicy matchup versus the Detroit Lions, and it all lines up. Kamara is in a position to smash once again.
Ezekiel Elliott ($7,800 DK, $9,000 FD) 🔒
Elliott is one of the most-used running backs in the NFL. Instead of attempting to pinpoint which receiver will have a big day in the Dallas Cowboys’ offense, let’s lock in the sure bet that is Elliott. Zeke sits fourth in the league in rushing attempts, and second behind Kamara in targets and catches among all running backs. On paper, the Cleveland Browns don’t seem to be an exploitable matchup to attack with an opposing running back. However, they’ve yet to face a feature back the likes of Zeke.
In Week 1, they faced the Baltimore Ravens, who are scarcely using Mark Ingram and J.K. Dobbins. Week 2, they faced Joe Mixon and the Cincinnati Bengals, who abandoned the run entirely once they fell behind. And in Week 3, they squared off against the Washington Football Team, whose offense is in utter disarray and is a running back by committee with rookie Antonio Gibson being utilized sparingly. This game should remain close and is expected to be full of offense. Look for Zeke to expose some kinks in the armor this week.
Mike Davis ($5,700 DK, $6,300 FD)
Piggybacking off the big reason to play Kamara on DraftKings, Davis presents the same type of service at a fraction of the cost. There are a talent discrepancy and upside disparity between the two, but we don’t need him to do a lot to reach his value in this price range. Davis has assumed the McCaffrey role in Carolina’s offense, and he’s even received more passing work than CMC was getting early in the year. The matchup isn’t outstanding versus the Arizona Cardinals, but it could be worse. The Cards are 17th, allowing 4.4 opponent rushing yards per attempt. In summary, I want Davis in my lineup because of his passing volume expectation and reasonable salary.
D.J. Moore ($5,600 DK, $6,800 FD) 🔒
I wasn’t as high on Moore as many others were coming into the season, mainly because of the uncertainty behind a new-look offense and coaching staff. So far, I haven’t been proved wrong. Teddy Bridgewater seems content checking down to Mike Davis underneath, and it has limited D.J.’s overall production. However, he did have a big game versus the Tampa Bay Bucs, and he’s still an elite-level talent. This price is too low for him; he should never be under $6,000 on DraftKings.
Odell Beckham Jr. ($5,800 DK, $6,600 FD)
Although he’s not a guarantee to get a ton of receptions, I still think OBJ is a better Cash Game play on DraftKings than on FanDuel. Where he is priced, I would much rather spend up a tad bit for Robert Woods or D.K. Metcalf. Nonetheless, I like Beckham today. He’s the number one target for Baker Mayfield, and the Cowboys have been yielding a lot through the air so far. They’ve given up 11.7 yards per completion, which is the third-most in the NFL. They are also banged up. OBJ gets it going today.
Brandin Cooks ($4,500 DK, $5,300 FD) 🔒
#LetBrandinCooks Can we make that a thing? No? Okay. Either way, Cooks is in an excellent spot to produce and at a very affordable price tag. The Minnesota Vikings have one of the worst secondaries in football. They’ve been massacred through the air. See the reasons why I like Watson above. Rookie cornerback Cameron Dantzler looks like he’ll return after missing two games with a rib injury. He could be lined up against Cooks, and he was roasted in Week 1 versus the Packers. All seven times he was targeted, it was a completion, and he also allowed one touchdown. I’m letting Brandin Cook, who’s with me?
Darren Waller ($5,200 DK, $6,700 FD)
The Las Vegas Raiders’ game against the Buffalo Bills is one of the six (remaining) Over/Under totals above 50 points for this week’s main slate of games. How does Derek Carr and the Raiders like to move the football? With Waller and Josh Jacobs. D Wall, as he goes by musically, is tied with Travis Kelce for the most targets seen by a tight end, and he ranks within the top-10 overall. While I still believe the Bills defense is solid – despite allowing 28 points to the Miami Dolphins in Week 2 and 32 points to the Los Angeles Rams last week – they have been susceptible to big plays against tight ends. Through three weeks, they have allowed the second-most yards to the position (245 yards). Somehow someway D Wall is going to get us paid.
T.J. Hockenson ($4,800 DK, $5,400 FD)
Even without Thomas playing for the Saints, this game has real shootout potential. That depends on which Brees shows up unless Kamara runs wild and puts the team on his back, which is also possible. The second-year tight end, Hockenson, has been getting increasingly involved every week; Week 1 64 percent of snaps, Week 2 69 percent, Week 3 82 percent. Along with the increased playing time, the targets are following. Last week, Hock received seven attempts from Matthew Stafford and converted four of those into 53 yards, and he’s had no fewer than four for 53 each week this season. The massive game is coming, and the floor is solid. It helps that he gets a pristine matchup against the Saints, who are dead last in just about every category you look at versus tight ends.
Cincinnati Bengals ($2,900 DK, $3,400 FD)
Given how poorly Gardner Minshew looked during last Thursday night’s game against the Miami Dolphins, it’s not too hard to get on board with the Bengals here.
Houston Texans ($2,500 DK, $3,700 FD)
The Houston Texans fall into the cheap Dart Throw that is receiving ownership category. They host the Minnesota Vikings; a team tied for second in giveaways per game (2.3). The Texans’ defensive line ranks within the top-10 in adjusted sack rate (8.3%). Meanwhile, the Vikings have allowed seven sacks and rank 25th in offensive line adjusted sack rate (8.6%).
Other Options: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Los Angeles Rams, Baltimore Ravens
Punt option: Miami Dolphins
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