Cheaper By The Dozen: NFL Week 4 DFS Value Playsby Euan Leith October 2, 2020 0 comments
Each week, this article will shine the spotlight on players outside the top-12 at their respective position on DraftKings and FanDuel to help you win your contests in daily fantasy. This advice should help you avoid having a lineup full of players on many of the competition’s rosters. Therefore, giving you a chance to win big each week.
The NFL suffered it’s first significant setback this week when they postponed the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennesse Titans due to some positive Covid-19 tests from the Titans. There is plenty of analysis to read regarding how it applies to other aspects of football, but it doesn’t change a lot for fantasy players. The bye weeks haven’t started, and it’s the only game off the slate. It would’ve been nice to continue a flawless start to the season, but hopefully, it’s only a bump in the road for the 2020 season.
Covid-19 is going to throw some wrenches into the daily fantasy machine this year. Make sure always to check your lineups before they lock, and feel free to reach out on twitter with questions. Good luck in Week 4.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA vs. SEA ($5,400 DK | $7,100 FD)
Fitzpatrick has scored at least 21 points in seven of his last nine games. Now, he takes on a Seattle Seahawks defense that looks like they still think the 2020 preseason is happening. The Seahawks are atrocious versus opposing passing attacks and give up colossal fantasy days to quarterbacks and wide receivers. Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, and Dak Prescott all threw for at least 397 yards versus this secondary, and it lines up for Fitzmagic to hit the 300-yard bonus with ease. The 16-year veteran isn’t afraid to chuck the deep ball, and although it may cost you a couple of turnovers, he will continue to sling the ball and rack up fantasy points for your lineup.
Kenyan Drake, ARI vs. CAR ($6,000 DK | $7,000 FD)
It is the last straw for Drake this weekend. He let owners down in Week 3 in an easy matchup with the Detroit Lions, and if he really can’t get it done versus the Carolina Panthers, he is *Robert DeNiro voice* out of the circle of trust. However, it’s not entirely his fault. The 26-year-old has only received five targets from Kyler Murray through three games and, to his credit, caught all of them. It’s the ground game that is the most frustrating. He’s had at least 16 carries in all three games, but has yet to crack 100 rushing yards and has only found the endzone once.
That’s where the Panthers come into play as the get right recipe for Week 4. They have already allowed seven rushing touchdowns on the year, and five running backs have caught at least three passes. The Arizona Cardinals are three-point favorites on the road, so the game script should line up quite nicely for Drake to have his first big game of the 2020 season.
David Montgomery, CHI vs. IND ($5,500 DK | $5,800 FD)
Montgomery is strictly a tournament play versus the Indianapolis Colts this week. He is currently projected to be on less than four percent of rosters and inherits a full workload versus the Colts. His running mate, Tarik Cohen, is out for the year after suffering a knee injury last week. Fortunately for Monty, he saw every running back touch and target after Cohen went down. Nick Foles is the quarterback for the Chicago Bears and is a massive upgrade for all the pass catchers in the Windy City.
The matchup versus the Colts is far from ideal. They only allowed eight rushing touchdowns since the beginning of last season, and no rusher has topped 65 yards versus this stout unit all year. Still, Montgomery is a safe bet to get 20 touches and is a great contrarian play on Sunday’s main slate. There is a surplus of high-upside, high-salaried running backs that will be tough to pass over, and the sophomore running back has a chance to break the slate this weekend.
DeVante Parker, MIA vs. SEA ($5,700 DK | $6,500 FD)
Over his last 11 games, Parker has caught at least five passes in eight of them and reached the endzone six times. The connection with Fitzpatrick is not going away despite Preston Williams’ return. The sixth-year player leads all Miami wide receivers with 24.5 percent of the team’s air yards, and a matchup with the Seahawks secondary should allow him to catch a couple of deep throws on Sunday.
Everything said about Fitzpatrick earlier in the article can be applied to the wide receivers in Miami. The Seahawks secondary is abysmal and is the NFL’s equivalent of a “Pass Go and Collect $200” square. On the year, six wideouts have scored at least 20 points in DraftKings scoring, and it’s a safe bet that one more will join the list this weekend.
Hunter Renfrow, LV vs. BUF ($4,600 DK | $5,300 FD)
Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards are out for the Las Vegas Raiders contest versus the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. That leaves Renfrow as one of the only receivers with a semblance of chemistry with Derek Carr to catch the ball this week. Renfrow is coming off a 20.4 fantasy point performance against the New England Patriots but only saw his salary rise $400 on DraftKings.
The Bills have an elite secondary on the outside, but offenses can attack them over the middle of the field. Jamison Crowder (13 targets, seven catches, 115 yards) and Cooper Kupp (10 targets, nine catches, 107 yards, one touchdown) have already torched them this season, and Renfrow can join the party this week. Carr is completing 74 percent of his passes this season, and despite his new offseason weapons, he is still averaging only 7.8 yards per attempt. The over/under for the game is 52.5 points, and the Bills are favored by three and a half. The Raiders will have to throw the ball to keep up with the Bills offense, and without two of his main options, Carr will funnel his targets towards Renfrow, Darren Waller, and Josh Jacobs.
Logan Thomas, WAS vs. BAL ($3,500 DK | $4,900 FD)
Waller, Travis Kelce, Noah Fant, and Thomas: those are the four tight ends with the most targets in the NFL this season. The math says to keep believing in Thomas, but the results make it a tough sell. Something has to give in this situation as Thomas is continuously peppered with targets, but he’s been unable to turn them into fantasy points. The matchup with the Ravens may be the last week before the breakout or the bottom falling out. The low salary makes it an auto-play in cash games because of the flexibility it allows fantasy owners to spend big at other positions.
Opposing tight end units are averaging nine targets, seven catches, and 78.3 yards per game versus the Baltimore Ravens this season. That would be good enough for 14 points in DraftKings scoring, and easily put that fire symbol next to Thomas’ name by the end of the day. It’s the last week to trust him or the last week to get the 29-year-old at this kind of value. Take the savings and plug him in one more week and trust that the returns, and the patient, will be worth the hassle.
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