Best Prop Bet from Every NFL Week 3 Gameby Mike Fanelli September 26, 2020 0 comments
On Thursday, the Miami Dolphins pulled off the upset over the Jacksonville Jaguars, winning 31-13. Despite being three-point underdogs, the Dolphins had a controlling wire to wire victory over the Jaguars. Hopefully, tomorrow’s games are filled with underdog upsets like the one on Thursday night.
In addition to betting the spread, Moneyline, or the over/under total, you can also bet on what are called “props”. These are usually things like a certain player to throw for over/under a number of yards, or a certain player to score a touchdown. However, they aren’t limited to those two examples.
Each week, I will give my favorite prop bet from each game for the weekend. To have a little fun with it, I will be keeping track of how many prop bets I correctly predict. In addition, I will select one bet as my lock of the week. If it hits, I get a bonus point, but if I’m wrong, I lose two points. Last week I went 7-8, but Josh Allen had just 18 rushing yards, falling well short of the over. With getting the lock of the week wrong, my final record last week was 7-9. Now, as we enter Week 3, I have a 16-16 record on the season. Probably none of you care about this, so without further ado, let’s dive into the best prop bets for Week 3.
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San Francisco 49ers vs New York Giants
Darius Slayton Over 3.5 Receptions (-112)
After a strong Week 1 with six catches on nine targets, Slayton pulled in just three of his six targets last week. However, he faced up with a strong Bears’ secondary and now takes on the 49ers without Richard Sherman. Furthermore, Sterling Shepard and Saquon Barkley are on injured reserve, meaning more of the passing game should flow through Slayton. He should hit the over on this bet before halftime.
Washington Football Team vs Cleveland Browns
Terry McLaurin to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+210)
Against the Cardinals last week, McLaurin got going in the second half. He pulled in his first touchdown of the season despite facing Patrick Peterson for much of the game. Now he takes on a banged up Browns’ secondary that will be without Greedy Williams again this week. Furthermore, Denzel Ward is questionable to play with a groin injury. Even if Ward plays, McLaurin has shown the ability to win against top cornerbacks in the past. Furthermore, Washington has one consistent weapon in the passing game, and his name is McLaurin. At over 2-1 odds, this bet is too good to pass up.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Philadelphia Eagles
Miles Sanders Over 82.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
In his season debut last week against the Rams, Sanders had 20 rushing attempts for 95 yards. This week, he faces a Bengals defense that gave up 210 rushing yards to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt last week. Furthermore, the Browns’ running back duo averaged 6.6 yards per carry against the Bengals. With the Eagles’ lacking healthy weapons in the passing game, expect them to lean heavily on Sanders and the running game.
Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots
Sony Michel Under 45.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Is there a more worthless running back in the league than Michel? So far this season, Michel has 17 rushing attempts for 56 yards. He is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry, and now starting center, David Andrews, is expected to miss the game with a thumb injury. Furthermore, Michel had just 19 rushing yards last week and 37 in Week 1 despite facing an awful Dolphins’ run defense. Meanwhile. Cam Newton has turned into the Patriots’ top runner, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if Michel fails to rush for more than 30 yards tomorrow.
Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons
Mitchell Trubisky Over 249.5 Passing Yards (-109)
While Trubisky is everyone’s favorite punching bag, he has played well so far this season. He has five touchdowns and 432 passing yards this year, and this week faces the worst passing defense in the league. Last week the Falcons gave up 450 passing yards and four total touchdowns to Dak Prescott, while in Week 1, they gave up 322 passing yards and four touchdowns to Russell Wilson. Obviously, Trubisky isn’t an elite quarterback like Wilson and Prescott. However, this game should be high scoring, so expect Trubisky to easily throw for 300 yards.
Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills
Devin Singletary Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Zack Moss will miss the game with a toe injury, opening up Singletary to a featured role. Furthermore, Jalen Ramsey should slow down if not take Stefon Diggs out of the game. With two of his weapons limited or not playing, Allen will have to look elsewhere with the ball. Even despite Diggs’ hot start to the season and Moss taking snaps away from him, Singletary has gone over 19.5 receiving yards in both games this season. Furthermore, Singletary’s 10 targets are fourth-most on the team and the highest for any non wide receiver. Expect Singletary to easily go over his receiving yard total this week.
Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Deshaun Watson Over 0.5 Interceptions (-121)
Watson has struggled so far this season. Part of that is finding his way without DeAndre Hopkins, and part of it is facing two good defenses to start the year. He has thrown an interception in each game this season, and now he faces the Steelers in Pittsburgh. Last season, the Steelers finished the year with 20 interceptions, good for second-most in the league. Now this season, they are also second in the league with three. As Watson works his way through a strong Steelers defense tomorrow, expect at least one interception.
Tennessee Titans vs Minnesota Vikings
Jonnu Smith to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+130)
The 2020 season has been a coming out party for Smith. So far, he has three touchdowns on his eight catches this season. While his 37.5 percent touchdown rate can’t keep up all season long, Smith should score again this week against a struggling Vikings defense. To make matters worse for the Vikings, linebacker Anthony Barr is out for the season with a torn pectoral muscle. Furthermore, A.J. Brown is out again this week, meaning Ryan Tannehill will focus his attention on Smith once again.
Carolina Panthers vs Los Angeles Chargers
*Lock of the Week* Austin Ekeler Over 63.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
No team has been friendlier to running backs this season than the Panthers. They have given up over 120 rushing yards and three touchdowns in both games this year. While some may be worried about Ekeler’s teammate, Joshua Kelley, they shouldn’t be. Despite getting seven fewer carries than Kelley last week, Ekeler had 29 more rushing yards. Furthermore, Ekeler has at least 84 rushing yards and 16 carries in both games this season. In a game where the Chargers could easily have both running backs go over 80 rushing yards, this is my lock of the week bet.
New York Jets vs Indianapolis Colts
Philip Rivers Over 0.5 Interceptions (+125)
While the Jets are currently the laughing stock of the NFL and barely able to put together a healthy team, expect Rivers to throw an interception on Sunday. He has thrown three this season and, at times, has struggled with being on the same page as his receiver. The Jets have just one interception this season but have yet to face a gunslinger like Rivers. With no pressure from the Jets’ offense, expect Rivers to try and force a few passes, and one of them end up being an interception.
Dallas Cowboys vs Seattle Seahawks
Dak Prescott Over 299.5 Passing Yards (-112)
Other than Wilson, no quarterback has been as hot as Prescott this season. He has thrown for 716 yards to go along with five total touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Seahawks love to give up passing yards like a fat kid loves cake. In Week 1, the Seahawks gave up 450 passing yards to Matt Ryan. Then in Week 2, they gave up 397 yards to Newton at home. With Wilson playing at a crazy high level, expect Dak to try and match him. This game is expected to be pass-happy and high scoring. Prescott might hit the 300-yard mark early in the fourth quarter.
Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray Over 39.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Along with Wilson and Dak, Murray is in the early conversation for MVP this season. In two games, Murray has 516 passing yards and two touchdowns. To go along with his passing stats, Murray leads all quarterbacks with 158 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns on just 21 attempts. He is averaging 7.5 yards per carry and has rushed for at least 67 yards in both games this season. Furthermore, the Lions’ defense lacks the athletes to stick with Murray in the open field, meaning if he takes off and runs, he likely is picking up a big chunk of yardage. Murray should hit the over on this bet before the start of the fourth quarter.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Denver Broncos
Tom Brady Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-103)
Much like Rivers, Brady is still building chemistry with his receivers. Brady has thrown three interceptions so far this season, including at least one in each game. The Buccaneers should have no problem moving the ball through the air against a banged up Broncos’ defense. However, the Broncos have some ball hawks in their secondary, including franchise safety Justin Simmons. All it takes is a miscommunication or a tipped pass for Brady to throw an interception, and given the lack of chemistry with his receivers, it is likely Brady throws at least one.
Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints
Aaron Jones Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Star wide receiver Davante Adams is expected to miss this game with a hamstring injury. With Adams out of the lineup, the Packers will rely on Jones even more Sunday night against the Saints. Last week, Jones had 168 rushing yards against the Lions, averaging 9.3 per carry. Meanwhile, the Saints struggled to slow down Josh Jacobs last week. To protect their defense against Drew Brees and the Saints’ offense, the Packers need to focus on the running game.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens
Longest Successful Field Goal Over 47.5 Yards (-114)
This game features two of the best kickers in the league in Justin Tucker and Harrison Butker. Both kickers have made all their kicks so far this season. For their careers, the duo has made 50 out of 72 field goals from 50 or more yards. Both teams have high powered offenses but good defenses as well. With a tight back and forth game, the team with the ball last might win, and that could mean a long-range game-winning field goal.
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