Cheaper By The Dozen: NFL Week 3 DFS Value Playsby Euan Leith September 25, 2020 0 comments
Each week, this article will shine the spotlight on players outside the top-12 at their respective position on DraftKings and FanDuel to help you win your weekly contests in daily fantasy. This advice should help you avoid having a lineup full of players on many of the competition’s rosters. Therefore, giving you a chance to win big each week.
Injuries dominated Week 2 of the fantasy football season. Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Raheem Mostert all went down with injuries and will miss a significant amount of time. Their replacements become instant options in daily fantasy because the prices are locked in so early each week. Mike Davis, Devonta Freeman, and Jerick McKinnon will all be popular plays in cash games. This trio will see such a high roster percentage that they will need to be faded if players want to take down a tournament.
Covid-19 is going to throw some wrenches into the daily fantasy machine this year. Make sure always to check your lineups before they lock, and feel free to reach out on twitter with questions. Good luck in Week 3.
Baker Mayfield, CLE vs. WAS ($5,700 DK, $7,100 FD)
Over the last two seasons, the Washington Football Team ranks seventh-worst in the NFL against quarterbacks. Over their last 18 games, they have allowed 20.25 points per game to quarterbacks in DraftKings scoring. Now, Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns get their chance to build on an encouraging Week 2 performance. The third-year signal-caller went 16-23 with 219 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception.
Admittedly, this is a massive gamble because Mayfield has already burned fantasy players a few times, but there are signs of hope. The former-Oklahoma Sooner has scored at least 16 points in DraftKings in eight of his last 13 games and cracked the 20-point barrier in four of those eight. The Browns are seven-point favorites and should use this game to catapult their offense as they head into a Week 4 game versus the high-flying Dallas Cowboys.
Kenyan Drake, ARI vs. DET ($6,000 DK, $6,500 FD)
Drake is having a good but not great start to the 2020 season. Through two games, the former Miami Dolphin has racked up 40 touches for only 160 total yards with one touchdown. Fortunately, he will match up with a Detroit Lions run defense that was just crushed by Aaron Jones in Week 2. Their poor run defense isn’t a recent trend either, as the Lions are the fourth-worst defense versus the run since the start of last season. On average, they’ve allowed opposing running backs to average 108 yards on the ground and catch 4.9 passes.
This game has the second-highest over/under on Jazzsports, and the Cardinals have an implied total of 30.5 points. DeAndre Hopkins had his big game in Week 1. Kyler Murray had his big game last week. Week 3 is lining up for Drake to join the party and help daily players win some contests.
Mike Davis, CAR vs. LAC ($5,100 DK, $6,000 FD)
The massive loss of McCaffrey has become a tremendous opportunity for Davis this week. Although he only saw one carry for one yard against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 2, it’s his work in the passing game that daily players should be hanging their hat on. The 27-year-old caught all eight of his targets for 74 yards and looks to be the odds on favorite to pick up most of the workload in CMC’s absence.
Davis will likely be a chalk play in most cash games but could go the opposite way in tournament formats. The Los Angeles Chargers have only allowed 67.5 yards per game on the ground in 2020 and could scare many people off Davis in the bigger contests. The journeyman is a better option in DraftKings because of the full PPR scoring. Daily players shouldn’t be scared to roster him in either type of game this weekend.
Allen Robinson, CHI @ ATL ($6,200 DK, $6,900 FD)
If Robinson doesn’t have a get-right game this week, then the fantasy community can begin to panic. Still, having him outside the top-12 receivers on DraftKings and FanDuel is surprising, especially when the opponent is the Atlanta Falcons. Robinson has seen 18 targets through two games but has only caught eight of them for 107 yards.
Everyone knows Mitchell Trubisky isn’t the most accurate quarterback, but this week is still a massive opportunity for his No. 1 wide receiver. The Falcons have given up 16 catches and 262 yards per game to wide receivers this season and have already allowed four wide receivers to top 100 yards. After two disappointing outings, Robinson may have lost some shine in the eyes of some fantasy managers. That makes him an even more attractive play in tournaments for Week 3.
Terry McLaurin, WAS @ CLE ($5,900 DK, $6,700 FD)
The game between the Washington Football Team and the Cleveland Browns stands in the middle of the pack with an over/under of 45 points. Still, it has the potential to become a shootout, and fantasy managers can use this as an opportunity for a contrarian game stack. The Browns are seven points favorites as of this writing, and that game script bodes well for McLaurin. The sophomore receiver has 17 targets this season and is the clear alpha in the Washington passing game.
Last week versus the Arizona Cardinals, F1 tore up the secondary for 125 yards and a score. 60 of those yards and the touchdown came in the fourth quarter. All fantasy points are equal, even the garbage time ones. The Football Team is not going to blow out Cleveland, and it makes McLaurin game script-proof in Week 3. He’s the 23rd-most expensive wide receiver on DraftKings. That kind of value is a gold mine for DFS players and will help them get in the win column.
Logan Thomas, WAS @ CLE ($3,700 DK, $4,900 FD)
Was it the plan to have three recommendations from the Washington-Cleveland game this week? No. Is it still happening? Yes. Like his teammate McLaurin, Thomas has seen 17 targets in the first two games this season, but he has an even better matchup with the Cleveland defense. Since the beginning of the 2019 season, the Browns rank third-worst versus the tight end on DraftKings, allowing 14.68 points per game to the position. However, it’s been even worse in 2020 as they have allowed 18 catches for 148 yards and three touchdowns in just two games. Cleveland is a defense to attack, and with the number of targets Thomas is receiving from Dwayne Haskins, he is a must-start in cash games.
Drew Sample, CIN @ PHI ($3,500 DK, $4,800 FD)
Speaking of the Cleveland Browns and their terrible defense versus tight ends, Sample filled in for the injured C.J. Uzomah in Week 2 and performed admirably. He received nine targets from Joe Burrow and caught seven of them for 45 yards. However, this is not a one week fluke. Burrow is targeting his tight ends on 21.6 percent of his throws this season. The sophomore tight end is a great security blanket for his quarterback and goes against a Philadelphia Eagles defense that gave up three touchdowns to Tyler Higbee. Sample is not in the same stratosphere as Higbee, but the small sample size shouldn’t deter daily players from slotting him into their lineups on Sunday.
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