Making the Case to Draft Blake Jarwin

Making the Case to Draft Blake Jarwin

by August 26, 2020 2 comments

We are just over two weeks away from the start of the 2020 NFL season, and fantasy football drafts are starting to take place. Every year fantasy owners select players that either hit or turn into a bust. In this article, I will explain why you should target Dallas Cowboys’ tight end Blake Jarwin. According to Fantasy Pros PPR ADP, Jarwin is being selected as the TE21 and the 167th overall player off the board. For fantasy players who love to wait till the last few rounds to grab a tight end, Jarwin is a name you need to consider.

Make sure to check out all of our other Making the Case articles.

Jarwin has been rising up fantasy rankings, including mine, over the last month or so for good reasons. Last season, as the Cowboys’ TE2, Jarwin had five games, 33% of his fantasy season (no week 17), where he finished as a top 12 tight end. That is the exact number of times Jason Witten finished as a top 12 tight end despite playing 416 more snaps and seeing 42 more targets than Jarwin. The truth is Jarwin should have been the starting tight end for the Cowboys last season, not Witten, as he was much more efficient with his snaps than the old man.

In the offseason, both Witten and Randall Cobb left in free agency. They leave behind 166 targets between the two of them as each had exactly 83. Both Amari Cooper (119) and Michael Gallup (113) had over 100 targets and 1,100 yards last season. Fantasy owners should expect very similar numbers from both this season. While the addition of first-round pick CeeDee Lamb is a concern for the wide receivers and Jarwin’s upside, there are plenty of targets to go around on this offense.

Targets

Receiving Yards

Fantasy Points

Amari Cooper

119

1,189

246.5

Michael Gallup

113

1,107

212.7

Randall Cobb

83

828

154.9

Jason Witten

83

529

139.9

Blake Jarwin

41

365

85.5

Both last season in Dallas and historically during Mike McCarthy’s time in Green Bay, the fantasy production wasn’t spread out among several players. Cooper and Gallup both should get about the same targets as last season. That leaves the 207 targets from Cobb, Witten, and Jarwin last season to be split up between Jarwin and Lamb. Removing 30 targets for whoever the Cowboys’ TE2 is this year, that leaves 177 targets between Jarwin and Lamb. Even with giving Lamb 110 targets, which might be generous, that leaves 67 for Jarwin. Adjusting Jarwin’s 2019 production with 67 targets means he would have finished the season as the TE11 with 140 fantasy points.

Ironically Witten finished the 2019 season as the TE11 with 139.9 fantasy points. However, Jarwin won’t get his fantasy points in the same fashion and offers more upside per target than Witten did. The Cowboys used Witten as Dak Prescott‘s security blanket and had him run routes in the middle of the field designed to pick up first downs. With Jarwin’s athleticism and downfield playmaking ability, which he displayed at times last season, he should be more productive with his snaps. His ability to make things happen after the catch and downfield offers fantasy owners more fantasy points per target than the simple stick routes Witten ran.

For those who worry the running backs will take away more targets, you don’t need to. Last season, Ezekiel Elliott had 71 targets, fifth-highest on the team. However, Tony Pollard had just 20 targets. The good news is Tavon Austin is now in San Francisco, and his 24 targets from last (most of which came on designed played) should now go to Pollard.

Prescott had a career year in 2019, throwing a career-high 596 times. Playing on the franchise tag, Dak is motivated to prove he is worth a big-time extension. Combine that with the addition of pass-happy head coach McCarthy, Dak should easily challenge, if not be the favorite, for the league leader in pass attempt this season. If you want to take a shot on a late-round athletic tight end, who has a secure volume, Jarwin should be your target.

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