Chad Forbes recently reported that the Minnesota Vikings are looking to trade up with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to get in front of the Denver Broncos for one of the draft’s top wide receivers.
The Vikings obviously have a gaping hole at wideout after trading away star receiver Stefon Diggs. However, they also now possess a plethora of draft picks (12) in the upcoming 2020 NFL draft, including two first-rounders.
Here, we will take a look at what such a trade could look like.
Based on the old Jimmy Johnson trade value chart, the Buccaneers’ 14th overall pick is worth 1,100 points. The Vikings’ first-round picks are worth 780 (22nd overall) and 720 (25th overall), respectively.
This leaves either 320 or 380 points for Minnesota to make up. Their second-round pick (58th overall) is worth exactly 320 points, so, by the old chart, the Vikings would simply send their Nos. 22 and 58 selections to the Buccaneers in exchange for No. 14 overall.
If they wanted to use the 25th pick, they would have to sweeten the deal with their fourth-rounder (132nd. overall, 40 points) and either their fifth (155th, 28.2 points) or both of their sixths (201st, 9.8; 205th, 8.2).
However, the Jimmy Johnson trade chart is obsolete. Over time, teams have adjusted their estimated values of draft picks. The Johnson chart vastly overvalued first-round picks in comparison with picks from subsequent rounds.
Last year, Bill Belichick spoke about the universal adjustments in the chart over the years and where teams are at now with respect to draft pick values:
“I would say that, in general, the trades over the last several years for the most part have been, let’s call them within 5 to 10 percent, pretty equitable trades,” Belichick said. “So, for you to have a chart that’s different than the other 31 charts isn’t really that productive because now we’re just arguing about which chart – ‘My chart says this. Your chart says that.’ . . . I would say everybody probably uses about the same value chart. I’d say in our draft trade negotiations through the years, especially the last two or three years, there hasn’t been a lot of, ‘My chart says this. Your chart says that.’ Now 10 or 15 years ago there was some of that. ‘Oh, here’s what we think it should be.’ Well, the other team’s in a different ballpark because they’re looking at a different chart.”
Now, there is no published example of the chart used by NFL teams so we will be working with a chart created by Rich Hill from Pats Pulpit as an approximation of what teams may be working from now.
In Hill’s chart, the Buccaneers’ 14th overall pick is worth 325 points. The Vikings’ firsts are worth 253 (No. 22) and 230 (No. 25), leaving 72 or 95 points to make up with additional picks. Minnesota’s second-rounder is worth 93 points, making it an almost perfect match with their later first-round pick, but, if the chart is accurate, is too much value to give up to move up from No. 22 to 14.
However, what if two of the top three receivers are gone and the Vikings feel like they have no choice? Maybe the Buccaneers could squeeze a little harder.
Instead, they would presumably offer both of their third-round selections (No. 89 overall, 46 points; No. 105 overall, 31 points) if they felt a second-round pick was, in fact, too rich for their blood.
This would leave Tampa Bay with two obvious scenarios: Either move from 14th to 22nd and collect two third-round picks or move further back to No. 25 and receive an extra second.
There could, of course, be many other scenarios the teams could consider. Maybe the Vikings would prefer to spread things out a bit more, offering instead their earlier third (89th, 46 points), fourth (132nd, 17 points) and fifth (155th, 11 points) to jump from No. 22 up to No. 14.
It’s also possible a veteran player or picks from next year’s draft (less likely considering Tampa’s perceived urgency for the 2020 season) could be included. Leverage could also be an issue.
Therefore, there are multiple scenarios that the teams will likely discuss between now and April 23. As any trade would be dependent on both a wide receiver that Minnesota likes being available at No. 14 and the top four tackles already being off the board for the Buccaneers to be willing to move, we almost certainly won’t see a trade until Tampa Bay is on the clock.