Kevin Walsh | November 2nd, 2019
All my plays are based on DraftKings pricing. It’s also important to note that when I list a player as a fade, I do not mean I will have 0% of them, but I will be way under the field as far as exposure goes, and likely will not play them on single entry lineups.
This is another strange week with only two games with totals over 50. Conveniently, those were games that I knew I wanted to target, so let’s talk about those.
I want to believe that Seattle likes to run the ball more than they have been but Tampa has actually been pretty strong as far as defending the run. Their secondary, however, is atrocious and should lead to some solid opportunities for Lockett and Metcalf.
Winston is always a whirlwind mix of solid play, some pure brilliance, and total bonehead decisions. Which Jameis do we get this week? I do not know for sure, but I do know that Seattle’s defense has been giving up through the air all season and Tampa’s best strategy is to use their two big guys to move the ball.
This game probably has the biggest chance of going off as far as offensive talent and defensive ineptitude go.
I’ll be honest, I like the Detroit side of the ball way more than the Oakland side. The Lions are running a full running back by committee with four different guys working in, and it’s clear that Stafford has started to just unleash the passing attack the last two weeks. Golladay looks to be a no-brainer here, but the second guy could be Jones or Amendola any given week. Amendola has 19 targets in the last two weeks, but Jones also had a four-touchdown explosion one of those weeks. It’s hard to choose, but due to price, I think I am leaning Amendola, especially for his floor.
As far as Oakland goes, while they did get Tyrell Williams back and are working in some other receivers, they have rough matchups against Darius Slay and Justin Coleman, which is why I am leaning towards only playing Waller as a pass-catcher from the Raiders. What the Raiders will need to do, however, is pound the running game if they want to compete, so that is where I will bring back a Lions stack with Jacobs.
Honorable Mentions: GB/LAC
POSITION BY POSITION
I will refrain from continuing to mention the same players across sections, so these will be more about other players I am interested in outside of big game stacks. I will try to pick a player or two in each pricing tier (High, Middle, Low).
Josh Allen ($6,500)
The Redskins are not a good team and Allen hasn’t had one of those 30 point explosions he has had in the past. I think he gets it going with his legs and his arm, and gets at least one touchdown passing and one running. If the Redskins find a way to actually score and make it a game, then it could be a slate-breaker for Allen.
Matthew Stafford ($6,800)
I have to mention Stafford again because he is my favorite quarterback this week. The run game looks to be borderline abandoned and Stafford has the weapons and the talent to beat almost any team through the air. Considering Oakland is pretty bad at defending the pass, it’s just the perfect storm for a big performance from the Lions passing attack this week.
VALUE – Brandon Allen ($4,100)
This is a big stretch, but if you think that a rookie quarterback with no NFL experience can manage to move the ball downfield against the Cleveland Browns at home, then this price is awful low for a matchup like that. Obviously, Allen is a total wild-card, so proceed with caution on this one. I will have one lineup with him and Courtland Sutton, though, and I will fit all my favorite high-priced guys with him.
Deep Shots – Sam Darnold
Christian McCaffrey ($10,000)
I rarely speak specifically about CMC because he is matchup proof and a god amongst mere mortals, but since he is finally priced appropriately, I feel as though I must touch on him at least. Last week couldn’t have been worse, as far as matchup and game script, and he still managed to put up 30 points without playing much of the fourth quarter. The Panthers are leaning on him hard, and ownership projections still have him around 30% despite the price tag. That is not bad chalk, so get your exposure to him somewhere.
Jordan Howard ($5,100)
It’s the Jordan Howard revenge game we have all been waiting for! Okay, that isn’t remotely true, but what is true is that the Eagles want to pound the ball. While I would still like this if Miles Sanders plays, if he were to be out, Howard goes from 4% owned to probably 20%. With Sanders out, you are looking at 20+ touches and maybe a few targets, and that is a large workload for that price.
Josh Jacobs ($6,500)
The one thing Oakland has going for them is Jacobs. Gruden loves to run the ball, and they have been pounding him hard. Given that I love Stafford this week, we will need the game to stay close for both Stafford and Jacobs to have big days, but I believe it can happen, and it makes a lot of sense given how these two teams have played their last couple of games.
Both of these plays are contingent on some injury news, but the analysis is relatively the same. Both guys would end up carrying the load against a middle-of-the-road defense and have inexperienced quarterbacks replacing their injured starters, looking to lean on the run to keep the game in front of them.
The volume both of these guys would get if both James Conner and/or Phillip Lindsay were to miss their respective games is too much to ignore, and we have seen both of these guys thrive in this role already. Everyone will be flocking here due to the inflated prices of seemingly everyone now, but especially McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook.
Kenny Golladay ($7,700)
I will touch on Golladay again because he is a favorite play of mine most weeks, and with the Lions turning to the passing game with Kerryon Johnson’s injury (and relative inefficiency). Kenny G is seeing the targets to have a nice, safe floor and still possesses the talent and opportunity to go over 100 yards with two touchdowns.
Allen Robinson ($6,800)
Mitchell Trubisky has not been great in the first half of the season, but he only has eyes for ARob in the passing game. The Eagles did not land Slay at the deadline, and nobody is happier about it than me, who wanted desperately to play ARob this week against the putrid Eagles secondary. Even when Trubisky is bad, ARob is getting the targets and putting up the numbers, and it shouldn’t be hard to do so this week against Philly.
Robby Anderson ($5,500)
Is it finally Anderson’s week? The Jets travel to play the lowly Dolphins who are amidst full-tank mode. Their only real defensive talent left was Xavien Howard, who now looks on from injured reserve. I don’t trust Bell right now (who may end up being popular against the Dolphins this week), but I do know that Sam Darnold has shown flashes of talent and should be able to get it done against the worst team in the league. I think there is merit to playing Jamison Crowder also, but Anderson has the bigger upside without question.
VALUE – Mike Williams ($4,600)
The Chargers are having a rough go of it this season, and it doesn’t get any easier when the 7-1 Green Bay Packers come to town. They haven’t been able to get the running game going, so I imagine they are going to need Rivers to air it out to compete in this one. While Hunter Henry is certainly a target of mine this week, if I am looking for a cheaper guy, I want some Williams. Keenan Allen is still playing banged up and could exit at any moment, and Williams is getting the deep looks as well as the red-zone looks. At this price, a simple 5-60-1 stat line would be valuable enough to give us a chance, and he has the potential and opportunity to do a hell of a lot more than that.
Hunter Henry ($6,000)
What applies to Williams also goes for Henry. Maybe he isn’t seeing the deep looks, but since returning from injury, Henry has been the best tight end in the league as far as production goes. Being behind in games is only helping his stat line (even if it isn’t helping his actual team too much), so he seems to be the safest guy this week, especially at a position that has been just dreadful week to week to find any sort of value in.
Darren Waller ($6,300)
With the outsides being locked up against two great Detroit corners, Waller should be seeing his usual complement of targets from Carr, especially if they fall behind like we think could happen with all of our Stafford love. His performance last week was a bit disappointing, but he also had a second touchdown negated by a penalty. He still saw eight targets and I expect that to continue this week.
Zach Ertz ($4,700)
I have no idea why they aren’t throwing him the ball, but they ought to be making him part of the game plan sometime this season if they want to be successful. Chicago is stingy through the air, but his price has never been lower than it is, and for as much of a crapshoot this position has been already this season, he has the talent to breakthrough.
VALUE – T.J. Hockenson ($3,700)
I write about him here every week and he still hasn’t done anything. Unfortunately, the tight end position is rather barren and devoid of real talent. Jonnu Smith got priced up after last week, so here I am back at Hockenson. I obviously like the Detroit passing game, and Oakland has a bottom-five defense against tight ends. Hopefully, they can get him involved like they did against the Cardinals. This is not a safe play whatsoever, but almost all tight ends are huge risks, especially on this slate.
They get a home matchup against the Redskins who will be helmed by Dwayne Haskins in his first career start. He is bound to throw a pick or two and get sacked a couple of times, and paying all the way up to here this week doesn’t look so bad for once.
Cleveland appears to be in some sort of meltdown mode, and I am not so sure that Baker Mayfield rises to the occasion against a Denver defense that is finding themselves and settling in. Maybe they won’t get a gifted turnover like Baker gave away last week Waterboy-style, but if they can frustrate him early, that should send him over to boil quickly and start making mistakes. This is a cheap price considering how much the Browns have been struggling.
VALUE – Steelers ($2,400)
The Colts are one of the slowest paced teams in the league, so they shouldn’t ever really blow a team out and throw up a 40-burger. The Steelers have been able to contain teams’ rushing attacks thus far, and if they can stuff Marlon Mack, that will allow their dangerous pass rush to get to work on Jacoby Brissett. Brissett doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, but good things happen when you pressure the quarterback, and this is a low price for a team that has been dominant at rushing the passer and creating turnovers.
Honorable Mentions – IND, CAR, TEN
In this section, I will list my favorite player at each position that is projected to be less than 5% owned. These will sometimes be dart-throws, and some will be more conviction plays and leverage spots. Don’t go slamming all these guys in one lineup and expecting success. They are low-owned for a reason, folks.
QB – Kirk Cousins – If (assuming Patrick Mahomes is out) Matt Moore can lead the Chiefs down the field just enough to put pressure on the Vikings, then it may not be the Dalvin Cook show we might expect from this game. Cousins has been getting it done through the air the last couple of weeks, and he is in another good spot at 4% owned.
RB – Jordan Howard – I doubt he stays at under 5% if Miles Sanders gets ruled out, but the Eagles have clearly moved to a run-first mentality, and who doesn’t love a revenge-game narrative?
WR – D.J. Moore – Tennessee just got torched by Mike Evans on the outside. Moore has been somewhat quiet, maybe due to McCaffrey carrying the team on his shoulders, or Kyle Allen not being able to get him the ball, but you have to think Ron Rivera saw Evans destroy this team on the outside and try and get their big-bodied receiver the ball, right? RIGHT!?
DST – Steelers – Beating the dead drum here, but they can stop the run, and they can rush the passer. Good things happen when you get pressure, and it wouldn’t take much to make a turnover into six points.
TWO MINUTE WARNING
This is a strange slate – between bye weeks, injured quarterbacks and running backs, lopsided matchups, and tight pricing, it’s going to be hard to put teams together this week. This is where research and effort tend to shine. If you put in the work, you should be golden.
If you have any questions, hit me up on Twitter. I will answer any questions you have!
Let’s make that money this week!
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