MLB DFS – Pitching, Value Plays, and Stacks for September 10th, 2019by Joe Ricotta September 10, 2019
Baseball is a grind and we are not stopping that grind just because football season is underway. None of the excess fat and all of the substance. Let’s get right into the pitching options, value plays, and stacks for tonight’s main slate of games.
Trevor Bauer ($9,100 on DK and $8,700 on FD)
Putting it lightly, Bauer has underwhelmed this season. Especially since the Cincinnati Reds acquired him. In seven starts with his new club, he has a 1-4 record with an 8.23 ERA. That being said, Bauer always has the potential to strikeout 10+ batters any given game. The salary on him has dropped to a point we aren’t used to seeing it, below the $10,000 range. The Seattle Mariners’ lineup is very watered down these days. They have struck out at a 25.7% clip against righties this season, and an astronomical 31.8% since the beginning of September.
Walker Buehler ($12,300 on DK and $11,600 on FD)
With Coors Field on the slate tonight, Buehler will be tough to pay up for in cash games. As of now, I don’t think I’ll be going that route, but the upside for using him in tournaments is certainly there. His 29.5% K rate for the year is the highest out of any pitcher going tonight. The Baltimore Orioles have struck out at a 24.2% clip versus righties in the month of September, while also having just a .218 wOBA. They have only a .301 wOBA for the entirety of the season versus righties and the Dodgers are heavy favorites tonight. At the very least, Buehler shouldn’t get blown up.
Mitch Keller ($8,800 on DK and $6,100 on FD)
We never know what we’re going to get with Keller. He was knocked out of his last start early, after taking a line drive off his wrist. Overall, he’s been very boom or bust, giving up between 6-8 runs or 1-2 runs. The potential and upside is still there. Keller is very much still growing and learning how the pitch at the big league level. Pitching against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park should help, The Giants strikeout 22.9% versus righties and have the third-lowest wOBA at .296. Maybe more of a GPP play, but I’ll definitely be using Keller tonight.
Another Cash Game Pitcher: Chase Anderson
2B Nick Solak ($3,900 on DK and $3,300 on FD)
Solak finds himself in a great spot tonight at home playing in the Texas heat. He’ll be hitting cleanup at a cheap price. In a limited 25 at-bats sample size, Solak has a .431 wOBA and .320 ISO against left-handed pitching. Ryan Yarbrough has been pretty good versus right-handed hitters this season, but at this price point, Solak makes for a solid play.
2B/3B Alex Blandino ($3,100 on DK and $2,100 on FD)
Blandino will be DH-ing and hitting lead-off for the Reds against lefty Justus Sheffield tonight. All of Blandino’s hits at the big league level this season have come against lefties and he’s a career .292 hitter against them. This is a sneaky spot for the Reds offense where I think they could go off. So far, in a small sample of only 10.2 IP versus right-handed batters, they are hitting .319 with a .364 wOBA against Sheffield. Don’t expect Blandino to knock one out of the park. He’s never hit more than single-digit home runs at the minor league level, but he is a decent option in cash games to get some guaranteed points.
SS Nico Hoerner ($2,100 on DK and $2,000 on FD)
A big-league debut that many players dream about. The Cubs have been dealing with injuries to Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Craig Kimbrel, and others. They were looking for a spark and made a surprise move to call up their number one rated prospect. Hoerner provided that spark and had himself a day. He went 3-for-5 with a 3B, 4 RBIs, and 2 Rs scored. Good enough for 26 DraftKings points. Nico is extremely good at putting the bat to the ball and is basically, the bare minimum price on both DraftKings and Fanduel. Lock him in and move on.
STL @ COL
I’m not sure we need to get to any Colorado Rockies in cash games, but I won’t tell you not to. The St. Louis side looks much more appealing, going up against Chi Chi Gonzalez and his 7.29 ERA. He’s also gotten demolished at Coors Field this season, with an 11.17 ERA and .463 wOBA against. Michael Wacha, historically, has been better against left-handed hitters than righties, and there are six lefties in the Rockies’ order tonight. That doesn’t mean you should avoid using them to some degree, but maybe limit your overall expectations.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Ty Blach
The Dodgers crush everyone and have hit the second-most HRs in the majors against left-handed pitching with 79 big flies. Blach has allowed a bomb in each of his last four starts and has a 10.95 ERA.
Cleveland Indians vs Jose Suarez
Suarez has a 6.45 ERA and allows 2.50 HR/9. The Indians get a park upgrade in Los Angeles and should be able to improve on their 63 home runs versus lefties, which is tied for tenth-best in the majors.
Cincinnati Reds vs Justus Sheffield
Really cheap prices for the Reds’ hitters tonight and Sheffield can be off at times. The top six in their order is where I’ll be looking.
Questions and comments?
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