MLB DFS: Locks, Core Hitters, BvP, and Stacks for July 23, 2019by Joe Ricotta July 23, 2019
You have to risk it to get the biscuit. You’ve heard the saying before, but when it pertains to daily fantasy lineups it can be especially pertinent. With that said, I like the Miami Marlins again tonight against Dylan Covey as a lower-owned stack. Not quite sure we can use them in cash games, but let’s take a look at some players that we can.
Chris Sale ($11,000 on DK and $10,200 on FD)
After a rough few outings in a row, Sale got back to dominance against Toronto his last time out, throwing six innings, giving up only two hits, and striking out twelve. The Tampa Bay Rays don’t have a terrible lineup, but they strikeout 26.1% against lefties which is the fourth-highest rate in the American League. We know Sale has massive upside and the strikeout potential in this spot is enough to make him a safe play in cash games.
Chris Archer ($7,500 on DK and $8,300 on FD)
Archer hasn’t been all that bad recently. He’s fresh off a quality start versus these St. Cardinals on the road where he struck out eight batters in six innings of work. There isn’t a ton of good value on the pitching side tonight as most are priced all the way up. The St. Louis Cardinals have the third-worst wOBA (.306) and fifth-worst wRC+ (88) in the National League vs right-handed pitching. Archer also has upside, as he Ks 26.7% of batters.
1B Matt Adams ($4,100 on DK and $2,600 on FD)
With Ryan Zimmerman on the injured list, no one is standing in front of Matt Adams for playing time at first base, especially against right-handed pitchers. Adams mashes righties with a 42.4% hard contact rate and only a 16.2% soft contact rate against them. 12 of his 15 long balls this season have been versus righties. And for his career, he’s a .274 hitter compared to .212 versus lefties.
3B/SS Manny Machado ($4,600 on DK and $4,000 on FD)
We already know the kind of elite-level talent Manny Machado is, but he is putting up elite-level numbers versus left-handed pitchers this season. Take a look below, these numbers are based from hitters with at least 40 plate appearances versus lefties this season.
- .532 wOBA (1st)
- 237 wRC+ (2nd)
- 52.8% Hard Contact (21st)
- .386 AVG. (7th)
- 1.334 OPS (1st)
- 55.6% HR/FB (1st)
- 10 HRs (tied for 4th)
Jason Vargas has given up 10 of his 13 homers to right-handed hitters and has a 5.27 xFIP against. Machado is a lock for me at his price.
Ian Kinsler vs Jason Vargas
25-67 2 HR 8 RBI 12 XBH .373 AVG. 1.050 OPS
10-33 4 HR 11 RBI 6 XBH .303 avg. 1.127 OPS.
Washington Nationals vs Peter Lambert
One of the main reasons I like Adams today, Lambert has had a really tough time with left-handed batters. Lefties are hitting .309 with a .404 wOBA and only 3.6% soft contact versus Lambert. A 6.06 ERA and 5.97 FIP suggests that he’s struggling with most hitters at the moment. This is a prime spot for the Nats to take advantage.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Tanner Roark
Roark has been okay versus righties this season, holding them to a .225 average. But against lefties, he has fared much, much worse. Left-handed hitters are slashing .317/.407/.554 with a 2.06 HR/9 rate. Fire up Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas, and Yasmani Grandal.
Houston Astros vs Mike Fiers
I will not be deterred or discouraged on my mission to catch the Mike Fiers blow up game. Since his no-hitter on May 7th, Fiers has been lights out. He’s racked up 11 straight quality starts since May 19th and hasn’t given up a homer in six consecutive starts. Fiers’ 4.55 FIP, 5.35 xFIP, and 5.30 SIERA suggest regression is coming. Out of pitchers with at least 70 IP, Fiers has the seventh-lowest BABIP in the league (.243). A lot of that is a testament to his O-Contact% being the highest of his career at 75.5%. If batters are more patient and don’t make as much contact on his pitches out of the zone, they will have much more success against Fiers. Houston has the fourth-highest walk rate in the American League (9.3%) and just put up 11 runs last night. This is a good spot for Mike Fiers’ regression party.
Miami Marlins vs Dylan Covey
Call this a gut call, especially after being shutout by Ivan Nova last night. But Dylan Covey has been brutal for the White Sox with a 5.83 ERA and 6.12 xFIP.
Questions and comments?
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