Locks, Stacks, and Barrels: MLB DFS for July 3, 2019by John Lepore July 3, 2019
John Lepore | July 3rd, 2019
The baseball season is a grind. It’s every single day. We will approach DFS the same way and be winners at the end of the season even if we have our hot streaks and slumps. Every day there are safe bets that flop and values that hit big, but we need to stick with our strategy in evaluating and playing. Let’s take a look at what we have today.
Griffin Canning – The young righty for the Los Angeles Angels has been very good this season. In 61.2 IP he has a stellar 63/14 K/BB rate. That is pretty darn good for any pitcher, let alone a 23-year-old rookie. In his last five starts, his rate is 29/5 and in four of those starts, Canning has thrown 6+ innings. While he has given up 14 HRs this season, the wind will be blowing in from right field at about 14 mph tonight. That should help Canning with neutralizing the big lefties on the Texas Rangers.
Walker Buehler – The Los Angeles Dodgers’ starter didn’t exactly start the season on the right foot after a promising 2018 campaign. Buehler has bounced back since April though. Aside from his last start in Coors Field which bumped his ERA above 3.00, Buehler has been stellar. In his four other starts in June he allowed only 3 ER in 31 innings and had an incredible 42/1 K/ BB rate. He pitches tonight at home vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks. The last time he faced them his line was 8 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 11 K.
Washington Nationals – The Nats are facing Sandy Alcantara tonight at home. In two starts against the Nationals this season, Alcantara has given up 10 ER in 11 IP with a 3/3 BB/K rate. Victor Robles, Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon, Adam Eaton, and Trea Turner are a combined 19-47 with 4 HRs and a 3/5 BB/K rate vs. the Miami Marlins’ starter. Mix and match at will but definitely try to get a couple of them in your lineups.
Cincinnati Reds – The Reds face Jhoulys Chacin tonight at Great American Ballpark. Chacin has been bad this year after a solid 2018. His ERA sits at 5.60 and he has gotten out of the sixth inning once in his last eight starts. The combination of Derek Dietrich, Joey Votto, Yasiel Puig, and Eugenio Suarez is 27-77 with 6 doubles, 5 HRs, and a 9/15 BB/K rate against Chacin. When you can combine good BvP stats, a hitter’s park, and a struggling pitcher, that’s a solid stack.
Randal Grichuk – I know he is facing Chris Sale tonight so that kind of makes him a contrarian pick, but hear me out. Grichuk is 6-12 with 2 HRs and has only struck out once vs. the Boston’s starter. The game is in Toronto and Grichuk’s splits at home and facing lefties favor him tonight. He has an .838 OPS at home vs. .602 on the road and his OPS against southpaws is .819 vs. .665 against righties.
Jorge Soler – He is facing Mike Clevinger tonight at Kauffman Stadium. Clevinger has been downright horrible since coming off the IL. Soler meanwhile has been heating up. He is 5-11 with 2 HRs and only 2 Ks in his last three games. The big DH for the Kansas City Royals is also 6-9 with 3 doubles in his career against Cleveland’s righty.
Carlos Santana – He will be facing Royals’ lefty Danny Duffy tonight. Santana is 13-30 with a HR against him and has only struck out three times. While Santana might not have the pop from the right side of the plate, his eye is even better and he gives you a very safe floor. He is slashing .316/.437/.459 with a 21/15 BB/K rate against lefties this season in 98 PAs. Santana only has three HRs as a righty this season, but Duffy has given up six dingers in his last 19.2 innings.
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