June Power Rankings, with a twist

June Power Rankings, with a twist

by June 29, 2019 0 comments

Due to the last month having little football, this installation of power rankings will be comparing teams based on their projected wins according to their Splash-ELO ratings.

The projected number of wins and eventual playoff seeding will be determined by utilizing the formula 0.5 plus ((team 1-team 2)/(640)). Each value will be rounded to two decimal places and scored between 0 and 1. 640 represents two times the maximum difference among teams in the ELO rankings (New England and Arizona).

Flaws:

Home field advantage will be ignored for the sake of this article. In future installations of the ELO predictions, a home-field advantage may factor, but the point of this article to display the relative strength of each team and analyze the schedules.

The week-to-week performance will also not affect ELO. During the season, wins and losses will make ELO fluctuate, but these changes will not impact this simulation.

Number 32: Arizona Cardinals (ELO: 1329) 3.77-12.23

Number 31: New York Giants (ELO: 1358) 4.51-11.49

Number 30: Denver Broncos (ELO: 1369) 4.03-11.97

Number 29: Cincinnati Bengals (ELO: 1379) 4.97-11.03

Number 28: Oakland Raiders (ELO: 1389) 4.89-11.11

Number 27: San Francisco 49ers (ELO: 1399) 5.59-10.41

Number 26: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ELO: 1408) 5.85-10.15

Number 25: Buffalo Bills (ELO: 1409) 5.83-10.17

Number 24: Washington Redskins (ELO: 1410) 5.85-10.15

Number 23: Carolina Panthers (ELO: 1419) 6-10

Number 22: New York Jets (ELO: 1425) 6.39-9.61

Number 21: Miami Dolphins (ELO: 1427) 5.84-10.16

Number 20: Detroit Lions (ELO: 1431) 6.29-9.71

Number 19: Jacksonville Jaguars (ELO: 1433) 6.13-9.87

Number 18: Green Bay Packers (ELO: 1474) 7.38-8.62

Number 17: Atlanta Falcons (ELO: 1489) 7.55-8.45

Number 16: Pittsburgh Steelers (ELO: 1499) 7.74-8.26

Number 15: Tennessee Titans (ELO: 1524) 8.38-7.62

Number 14: Minnesota Vikings (ELO: 1544) 8.98-7.02

Number 13: Seattle Seahawks (ELO: 1559) 9.66-6.34

Number 12: Houston Texans (ELO: 1575) 9.45-6.55

Number 11: Baltimore Ravens (ELO: 1588) 10.26-5.74

Number 10: Cleveland Browns (ELO: 1589) 10.76-5.24

Number 9: Indianapolis Colts (ELO: 1590) 10.35-5.65

Number 8: Dallas Cowboys (ELO: 1599) 10.55-5.45

Number 7: Philadelphia Eagles (ELO: 1614) 11.23-4.77

Number 6: Chicago Bears (ELO: 1618) 10.73-5.27

Number 5: Los Angeles Chargers (ELO: 1620) 11.2-4.8

Number 4: Kansas City Chiefs (ELO: 1621) 10.74-5.26

Number 3: New Orleans Saints (ELO: 1629) 11.39-4.61

Number 2: Los Angeles Rams (ELO: 1634) 11.68-4.32

Number 1: New England Patriots (ELO: 1649) 12.11-3.89

AFC East:

New England Patriots 12.11-3.89 *
NY Jets 6.39-9.61
Buffalo Bills 5.83-10.17
Miami Dolphins 5.84-10.16

 

AFC North:

Baltimore Ravens 10.26-5.74 X
Pittsburgh Steelers 7.74-8.26
Cleveland Browns 10.76-5.24 Y
Cincinnati Bengals  4.97-11.03

 

AFC South:

Indianapolis Colts 10.35-5.65 Y
Houston Texans  9.45-6.55
Jacksonville Jaguars 6.13-9.87
Tennessee Titans 8.38-7.62

 

AFC West:

LA Chargers 11.2-4.8 Z
Kansas City Chiefs 10.74-5.26 X
Denver Broncos 4.03-11.97
Oakland Raiders 4.89-11.11

 

NFC East:

Philadelphia Eagles 11.23-4.77 Y
Dallas Cowboys 10.55-5.45 X
Washington Redskins 5.85-10.15
NY Giants 4.51-11.49

 

NFC North:

Chicago Bears 10.73-5.27 Y
Minnesota Vikings 8.98-7.02
Green Bay Packers 7.38-8.62
Detroit Lions 6.29-9.71

 

NFC South:

Atlanta Falcons 7.55-8.45
New Orleans Saints 11.39-4.61 Z
Carolina Panthers 6-10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5.85-10.15

 

NFC West:

LA Rams 11.68-4.32 *
Seattle Seahawks 9.66-6.34 X
San Francisco 49ers 5.59-10.41
Arizona Cardinals 3.77-12.23

 

Key:

* -Home Field Advantage

Z – Bye

Y – Division Winner

X – Wild Card

 

AFC Rankings:

  1. New England Patriots
  2. Los Angeles Chargers
  3. Cleveland Browns
  4. Indianapolis Colts
  5. Kansas City Chiefs
  6. Baltimore Ravens

NFC Rankings:

  1. Los Angeles Rams
  2. New Orleans Saints
  3. Philadelphia Eagles
  4. Chicago Bears
  5. Dallas Cowboys
  6. Seattle Seahawks

Playoffs:

Wild Card Weekend Odds:

Browns 50.16% versus Ravens

Chiefs 54.84% versus Colts

Eagles 58.59% versus Seahawks

Bears 52.97% versus Cowboys

Divisional Round Odds:

Chargers 54.84% versus Browns

Patriots 54.48% versus Chiefs

Saints 52.34% versus Eagles

Rams 52.50% versus Bears

Conference Championship:

Rams 50.78% versus Saints

Patriots 54.54% versus Chargers

Super Bowl LIV:

Patriots 52.34% versus Rams

According to this set of power rankings, Super Bowl 54 will be a rematch of Super Bowl 53 (and 36). While this result is not out of the realm of possibility, it seems unlikely that both teams are able to get back to the Super Bowl. A repeat Super Bowl has not occurred since Super Bowls 27 and 28 (Cowboys and Bills).

As we inch closer to the season, the power rankings will shift slightly, and it is unlikely that 11 of 12 teams replicate their playoff berths.

Make sure to check back in January and February to see where I was misguided.

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